A comprehensive mathematical forecasting study by the H2Zero Research Unit at Frederick University indicates that the Eastern Mediterranean region holds transformative potential to become a major hydrogen production and export hub.

Using complex Gaussian bell curve algorithms to map natural gas production trajectories, the research outlines how regional cooperation and strategic investments can drive a sustainable transition from natural gas to hydrogen while securing long-term energy and economic benefits. The adaptive model developed represents a significant advancement in energy transition forecasting coupled with steam methane reforming technology modeling and economic optimization considering extraction costs, carbon taxation, and hydrogen market dynamics.

For Cyprus, the forecast shows that natural gas production can grow from 6 billion cubic meters in 2026 to a peak of 10 billion cubic meters by 2035, enabling the production of over 4 billion kilograms of hydrogen through steam methane reforming by 2050. At the regional level, the broader Eastern Mediterranean’s 2,399 billion cubic meters of reserves could support up to 40.7 billion kilograms of hydrogen production by 2050, with peak output reaching 2.4 billion kilograms annually by 2041, enough to position the region as a key supplier to European hydrogen markets.

Key recommendations from the study include early investment in hydrogen infrastructure, coordinated regional extraction strategies to balance revenue with long-term hydrogen production, and technology upgrades with a gradual switch to green hydrogen after 2050. The analysis also highlights the importance of regional cooperation, which can amplify hydrogen production potential up to tenfold compared to isolated national efforts.

Professor Andreas Poullikkas, head of the H2Zero Research Unit at Frederick University, comments: «With the right policies, timely infrastructure investments, and strong regional cooperation, the Eastern Mediterranean has the opportunity to become a cornerstone of Europe’s clean energy supply chain. Establishing a hydrogen hub in the East Med will not only help secure long-term energy security for the region and Europe but also drive significant economic growth and job creation. This transition is a critical step toward meeting ambitious climate targets by shifting from fossil fuels to low-carbon hydrogen and renewables. Our modeling shows that coordinated efforts among East Med countries can unlock hydrogen production potential up to ten times greater than isolated actions, making this a uniquely powerful collaboration. By embracing this pathway, the Eastern Mediterranean can lead the way in sustainable energy innovation, enhance regional stability, and set an example for global decarbonization efforts».

The economic implications are substantial: full regional-scale development could generate 15-25 billion US dollars annually in export revenues, create 25,000-40,000 construction jobs and 8,000-12,000 permanent positions, and contribute 3-5% to annual GDP growth during peak years. By 2050, the East Med region would retain significant natural gas reserves, ensuring continued production potential beyond the modeled period.

Overall, the research confirms that Eastern Mediterranean natural gas resources can serve as a viable bridge fuel when coupled with hydrogen production and renewable energy integration, providing a technically and economically sound pathway toward a decarbonized energy system.

You can view a synopsis of the results here.